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    中国国内空调市场透视:冷暖谁相知?

    慧聪空调制冷网刚刚过去的2012年,中国空调产业在宏观经济不景气、房地产遭遇严厉调控、以旧换新及家电下乡等政策提前透支消费力等因素作用下,结束了连续两年超过30%的高增长,出现较大幅度的回调态势。据奥维咨询(AVC)数据显示,2012年,国内空调市场销售量同比下滑7.8%,销售额同比略增长0.9%。

    2012年国内空调市场销量出现下滑,即在意料之内,又在意料之外。所谓意料之内,是因为空调市场已经经过2009年以来的三年高速增长,按照空调行业规律,每连续增长2至3年,必然会有一个回调,这是行业规律使然。所谓意料之外,是因为2012年政府出台了节能惠民补贴,而且空调是此轮刺激政策中被第一批纳入实施范围的。按理在政策刺激下,市场应该有积极的响应,走出一轮爆发式的行情。但现实却是销量出现回落,销售金额勉强持平,这一矛盾现象令业内感到意外。

    很多人在评价2012年中国空调市场时,基本观点都是认为市场陷入低迷,悲观情绪悠然而见。但笔者以为,2012年的空调市场虽然是表面上平静,其实是暗流涌动,市场热点和追溯点并不缺乏。

    变频趋向高端占比超越一半

    在2012年陡然下滑的市场中,变频空调表现出的相对增长,是为数不多的亮点之一。奥维咨询(AVC)数据显示,2012年国内变频空调销售量占有比例由2011冷年的35.7%上升为44.67%,销售额占有比例由43.4%上升至50.8%,继续保持了2010冷年以来销售比例逐步上升的势头。同时,变频空调从低端走向高端提升的脚印非常清晰。

    回顾变频空调技术发展的历史,不难发现经历过三个大的发展阶段:1997年海信在国内s*次推出变频空调,2004年美的推出国内s*台180°正弦波直流变频,2011年美的推出360°全直流变频空调,一步一个台阶的印迹清晰可见,伴随行业成长的技术升级一刻也没有停止。

    发展至今的全直流变频空调,是指空调的三大核心电机(变频压缩机电机、室内机风扇电机、室外机风扇电机)都采用了功能强大、可控性更强的直流电机,并通过全直流控制模块整合调节优势,匹配优化整个空调系统,将全直流变频空调的优势发挥到极致。从技术原理上讲,代表着当今空调技术的制高点,是今后空调发展的主流趋势。

    在2012年市场低迷中,变频空调还能够逆势走强,关键在于变频空调超强的节能性、超静音与舒适性,得到了市场广泛认可。换句话说,就是水到渠成。海信曾经是变频空调在中国市场的旗手,但海信主导变频市场时是在唱独角戏,由于主流品牌不认可、少参与,海信的结果则是曲高和寡。但目前,由主流品牌主导的变频普及,从美的2008年率先强势转型变频以来,以全直流变频力促市场拓展,紧跟着格力的1赫兹变频技术和海尔的宽带无氟变频技术也应运而生,共同促使了变频市场的迅速壮大。正是这一趋势作用,使得2012年整体市场不佳的情况下,变频空调依然能够逆势增长。

    再从政策环境看,变频空调的崛起顺应了产业升级的潮流。2012年政府出台新一轮的节能惠民工程,变频空调s*次纳入受补行列。能够进入政府节能惠民政策补贴,说明政府对变频空调是持积极支持态度,这与往年只补贴定速空调成为鲜明的对比,一方面政策起到了导向性的作用;另一方面政策补贴也起到了拉动效应。

    可以判断,2013年中国空调市场变频依旧是重要热点之一。因为,2012年12月中旬,政府有关部门就变频空调能效标准升级召开了空调企业座谈会。新变频能效标准将在2013年年终前后推出,届时变频空调市场准入门槛将由5级能效提升到3级能效,并且对变频能效检测标准进行修订,变频空调制热能效也将纳入检测范围。由此带来变频空调升级将是2013年的z*大热点与看点。

    如果说,2012年家电市场是一潭死水的话,2012年6月1日开始实施的新一轮节能惠民政策,就是力图投下去激起浪花的石头。但是,截止11月底实施政策已经5个多月,市场的总体反应却是相对平静,没有出现预期中火爆的市场局面。我们以空调行业做个分析,看看问题症结到底在哪里。

    很多人对此现象进行过解读,归纳起来集中在这么几个方面:s*先,惠民政策推出突然,厂商产品准备不足;其次,厂商在政策补贴到位上有顾虑,担心难以拿到补贴资金;第三,政策实施手续复杂,操作难度比较大;第四,前期实施过多种政策刺激,市场有了政策衰减效应;而且有些问题在行业龙头企业反映特别强烈。

    上述很多原因是暂时的,或者不是根本性的。那么到底还有什么深层次的问题,会阻碍政策的贯彻落实呢?其实,大家看到的上述问题,都是已经浮出水面的,容易被大家发现与解读。但有些深层次的问题,一些企业不愿意说,却是政策难以落地的真实原因。那就是,政策的实施与企业发展战略的冲突。

    空调行业从某种意义上讲是一个规模制胜的行业,龙头都具有一定规模的大企业。规模企业在产品生产流程上,都形成了一定的模式,不可能像小企业那样有随意性或灵活性。本次节能惠民政策出台非常突然,对中小企业来说迅速调整产品结构很容易,但对规模化企业来说就比较难。5月份之前采购的配件与原材料,还都是按照非节能产品标准配置的,起码可以使用到年底。要大批量转投到节能产品上,需要一定的时间周期。

    同时,政策实施的时间跨度,也是企业不得不考虑的问题。本次节能惠民政策宣布暂定一年,到2013年5月底将结束。这就带来了企业调整产品策略的问题。但政策实施时间周期仅为一年,企业如果紧跟政策走,那么产品策略这次调整了,过不到多长时间又面临一次选择?如此频繁进行产品策略调整,对中小企业来说并没多大难度,但对规模企业来说就折腾不起。从截止目前申领补贴的情况看,拿到节能补贴资金z*多的,不是格力、美的这样的龙头企业,而是像奥克斯空调这样二线品牌。

    因此,行业龙头企业在这次落实节能惠民政策时,显得比较消极,等待和观望的情绪非常浓厚。他们采取的策略就是暂不大幅调整产品策略,继续以原来的产品布局进行推进。一方面,他们本身规模较大,10万套受补规模门槛很轻松即可跨越,不用大规模调整产品策略来应对;另一方面,非受补的三级能效产品还是具有价格优势,在乡镇农村普及需求作为增量市场的背景下,维持原来的产品策略更具有市场操作性。

    自2012年京东商城掀起8?15电商大战起,引起了全社会的广泛关注,空调企业才真正开始审视电商渠道。加上三个月后的11?11光棍节电商促销,渠道变革似乎成为厂家不得不考虑的战略课题。

    从电商在整个空调销售中所占的比重来看,不难发现在空调市场领域,电商依旧没占据重要的地位。发展速度虽然很快,可是绝对量还是非常有限。根据奥维咨询(AVC)数据显示,截止目前电商销售占国内整个空调销售的比例仅为4.6%,还不足以影响整个行业的渠道格局。

     

    标签: 空调制冷制冷剂  

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