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    空調行業2020冷年開盤觀望氣氛濃厚

      【中國制冷網】按照空調行業傳統冷年開盤慣例,進入8月就是2020新冷年的起始節點。但至今距進入新冷年已經有20天時間,除了個別品牌明確開盤并舉行儀式外,大部分品牌仍然沉浸在2019冷年的市場中。

      進入新冷年,業界看到海爾空調是8月日在濟南召開新冷年開盤會議,以“對話好空氣”為主題的海爾空氣產業2020冷年戰略發布暨市場啟動活動,宣布海爾實現了從智能空調第一品牌到空氣生態唯一品牌的跨越。

      除了海爾,幾乎沒有看到其他品牌有類似的大型活動,只是有一些品牌僅僅是在區域市場組織開盤,或者是內部會議進行新冷年的布置安排,與往年新冷年開盤你先我后的爭相開盤比,行業似乎冷靜了許多。

      那今年空調行業企業為什么會行動遲緩,不在行業第一時間開盤,是在擔心什么呢?是有什么顧慮嗎?

      要說擔憂,行業確實有一些。一是今年的旺季始終沒有旺起來,多數品牌都沒有達到年初的預期;二是對今年行業的庫存有所忌憚,畢竟旺季并不旺,必然會留下大庫存;三是對消費環境擔憂,害怕毛衣戰繼續打下去,影響到消費的信心;四是還在期待8月份天氣再熱一下,能夠把上個冷年的任務補上去。

      行業的這些擔心不是沒有道理,不論是對行業內部的擔憂,還是對整個經濟行業外部因素的擔憂。有了相對比較重的擔憂,就會影響到行業企業對后市未來的判斷。

      一方面,受夏季沒有出現持續暴熱,今年旺季確實沒有達到年初預期。雖然,人們從各個電視上經常可以看到高溫預警,不過要知道能夠促使空調旺季銷售的氣象條件,不是有那么一兩天的高溫,而是要滿足兩個條件:一是有高溫,35℃以上;二是要持續,必須持續一周左右。今年夏季雖然出現過高溫,但時間都很短暫,熱不了兩天接著就是一場雨。這樣的天氣氣象狀況,根本激不起應急需求的變現,旺季自然難以呈現。

      另一方面,旺季不旺的必然結果就是行業庫存增加,冷年末的大庫存對行業絕不是什么好事。一是留下巨大老庫存,新冷年開盤怎么推新品?二是巨大的庫存加劇了廠商的負擔,既有占用資金的壓力,又有藏儲保管的費用開支;三是巨大庫存也是價格戰的根源,為了將庫存企業不得不采取降價來去庫存。據行業數據公司給出的庫存數據,新冷年行業要承受接近5000萬套的庫存,為歷史的新高。

      至于其他幾個方面,對行業是有一些影響,不過這兩個方面不僅是權重大,影響力也夠深,足可以對行業的未來走勢構成不利影響。

      家電其他品類一直以來對空調行業比較羨慕,一個需求比彩電、冰箱、洗衣機都要大,市場的容量也被隨之撐起來,使得上市公司家電績優股集中空調行業。但今年夏季的不及預期,給空調行業造成了巨大的壓力。另一個是盈利空間相比其他家電品類大一個檔次,格力、美的的毛利率在28%以上,遠高于其他家電企業。而今年會不會是空調高盈利的轉折點,也是業界一直關注的一個點。

      雖然說空調行業在2019冷年遭遇挫折,但并不代表空調行業就此走弱,一來空調的需求量要遠大于彩電、冰箱、洗衣機等家電品(空調一家需要裝多臺,而其他電器多了也沒用);二來為大家電品類中至今還沒有完成普及的品類,也就是說增量還是有的;三來只要龍頭品牌不放水,空調行業的盈利水平還可以繼續高于其他家電品類。

      當然不可回避的是,2020冷年行業將面臨政府能效標準監管力度加大的考驗,一些沒有實力的企業將會因此而受到沖擊,甚至有的不入流的品牌會被淘汰出局。不過這對行業的頭部品牌來說,是一個巨大的利好。多少年采用市場行為難以清理,在這樣政策嚴格執行之下或許真的能夠得以實現。

      觀望不如實干,新冷年的到來,各個廠商還是要把眼光看的遠一些,不要總定在當下的難點之上。只要需求還在,廠商就有繼續挖掘的潛力,也就有輾轉騰挪的空間。

      據了解,很多企業都在醞釀新冷年的客商大會或活動,精心布局新冷年的市場策略,通過技術手段來刺激市場,2020冷年或許市場就會又有一個新天地!

    標簽: 空調  

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