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    2020冷年 空調業將上演生死絕殺

      【中國制冷網】經歷2016冷年的尾盤反彈、2017冷年的高光時刻,2018冷年的下跌調整,2019冷年的醞釀洗牌后,2020冷年的空調產業,將會上演一場“生死大絕殺”。這也注定,2020冷年將是最近5年來,中國空調產業最具看點、最為熱鬧的一年。

      隨著2020冷年大幕的快速開啟,不少空調企業已經在市場上遭遇“開不了盤”的商業尷尬。背后,家電圈則注意到,空調產業變局的兩個歷史性拐點已經出現:一個是空調能效制度的大調整,首次將變頻與定速兩類產品的能效制度統一,空調能效門檻再次被推高;另一個是空調市場還將繼續保持低迷走勢,空調企業最近兩年的最好出路,就是干掉對手才能為自己“騰出空間”。

      能效門檻推高,還不是最大“殺手锏”

      能效標準統一,行業外部的國家產業標準帶動進入門檻持續推高,必然會引發一輪行業的政策性洗牌;這將成為過去幾年,空調市場上大量新興品牌、雜牌、假冒品牌層出不窮的“殺手锏”。

      空調市場上的主流品牌在2016冷年前,只有不到20個,但是到了2018冷年之后,空調市場活躍的品牌數量逼近300個。

      眾多空調新軍出現背后,活躍并存在于一線市場上,除了得益于格力、美的、海爾們將市場價格體系一直保持在較高的價格段,主動讓出了大量的低端需求。同時,還有一個“行業公開的潛規則”,那就是大量空調新軍們多采用的是“非標機”,從而實現“低成本、低價格、高利潤”的鏈條,贏得了一批空調經銷商的認可和強推。

      這些依靠國家政策“灰色地帶”生存的空調非標機,成為推動大量雜牌、假冒空調企業的最大生存根基。一方面,無論是變頻,還是定速,技術早已穩定和成熟,產品質量的可靠性和穩定都能保證。而空調能效的高低,并不會影響空調制冷制熱速度,所以消費者對非標機沒有感知;另一方面,則是空調能效制度,長期采取的是企業“自主聲明”,而不是國家檢測合格后再上市,同時國家對能效只采取不定期抽查,而且是“民不舉官不究”。

      接下來,對于大量的空調“非標機”企業來說,擔心的并不只是新的空調能效強制制度頒布實施,而是國家一旦加大加多對于市場銷售的空調能效抽查力度,甚至鼓勵空調同行間的相互舉報,無疑會對市場上的大量“非標機”企業展開一輪“釜底抽薪”的打擊。

      巨頭間貼身肉搏,正上演“絕命追殺”

      當前空調行業內部的企業競爭白熱化,越來越多空調企業已從“大魚吃小魚”進入“大魚間的相愛相殺”轉變。背后,還夾雜著來自京東、天貓、蘇寧、國美等渠道商的助力,可以說“局面相當復雜,戰役已是不得不打”。

      一線空調陣營中格力、美的、海爾、奧克斯四家企業,已經貼身肉搏一年多時間,且各有優劣勢,很難說誰就能馬上“穩坐釣魚臺”。二線梯隊中“海信科龍戰略調整,志高經營陷泥潭,TCL尚未見發力,小米徒有價格一張牌”,顯然是不進則退。在三四線梯隊中,長虹、揚子、創維、康佳等超過50個品牌的拼殺,則是愈發激烈。

      目前來看,空調產業格局變化最大的,當屬一線陣營:格力的領軍地位能否撼動、美的能否一鼓作氣、海爾能否換道超車、奧克斯如何化險為夷,這些都存在很大變數。其中,格力的變數最多也最大:一方面,面臨著美的、海爾、奧克斯輪番沖殺;另一方面,迫于自身營收目標高增長,壓貨帶來的高庫存已是常態。2019冷年的空調市場整體低迷,讓2020冷年的格力開盤和增長,都背負著巨大壓力。當前,一線空調陣營的格局之變,蘊藏著不同企業背后的共同目標:干掉一個格力,成就N個新巨頭。

      在經歷長達一年的漫長等待后,空調廠商終于在2019冷年即將落幕之時,收獲一輪小小的“翹尾行情”,不少商家庫存消化一二成。雖然,這已經無法改變大盤低迷的事實,但是對于很多中小廠商來說,顯然是“有總比沒有好”。

      對于眾多的二線陣營企業來說,市場的持續低迷則意味著行業洗牌加速和多變。特別是二線陣營的變數增多:無論是海信科龍追求高質量發展,還是志高正在面臨一輪換莊調盤,或是TCL規模化擴張野心未解,以及小米空調的遲遲未能全線引爆。一方面,他們都面臨著一線陣營洗牌控局的影響,另一方面還要遭遇來自三四線陣營的沖擊;最終,還要快速在“規模與利潤”、“高速度與高質量”發展之間,尋找到新的出路。困難不少,機會也不少。

      三四線梯隊中,企業的數量多,但企業的發展和經營質量普遍不高,大多是偏安一隅。當前面臨的最大問題,就是一線市場競爭的區域性操盤,缺乏實力和資金實現全國性的布局;同時,產品迭代和市場營銷缺乏引爆力量,只能停留在區域市場上“小打小鬧”,本質上還是依靠渠道商家的力量在推動這些企業的生存或增長。有消息稱,康佳、創維在2020冷年都希望在空調市場謀求一輪引爆,前者要靠資本收購,后者要靠投入式擴張。

      開弓沒有回頭箭。對于2020冷年空調市場,所有廠商其實已經充分意識到,市場不妙、同行不善、競爭難搞,卻又是不得不戰。

    標簽: 空調  

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