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    传空调库存破4000万 或再次打响价格战?

      【中国制冷网】空调行业缘于有淡旺季的市场规律,因此也就造成在淡季压库存,来为即将到来的旺季做准备。但是,这种库存一旦高于行业的承受能力,或者旺季没有出现预期的旺销,困村往往就成为行业之痛。一些操作不当的企业就会因此遭受损失。空调行业历史上还曾有过因此而倒闭的企业,所以说库存问题在空调行业是一个生死有关的问题,企业不可以视而不见。

    传空调库存破4000万 或再次打响价格战?

      3月14日,制冷空调行业研究机构产业在线发布消息,行业库存在3月份将攀上4000万台的高位。实际上,在专业人士认为,产业在线的数据已经是偏小,实际库存早在春节前就已达到4000万套。

      坊间的说法则有些令人吃惊。据传,2月底空调行业的库存已经达到4500万套之上,只是一些中小品牌的产能和市场,并不为业内主流企业所关注。因此,被忽略是显而易见的。业内分析人士认为,虽然,4500万套不至于,但绝不会不低于4000万套也是保守观点。

      至于业内现在到底有多少库存,其实并没有一个标准的答案。一方面在于统计数据的角度,或者说是数据来源不一样,有的是以出货为准,有的却是以压缩机厂家的数据推断;另一方面库存数据本身就是一个动态,随时都会有一些变化,如果截止时间不一样,差别也会很大。况且是在旺季来临之际,囤积库存是空调营销的基本规律。

      不论是产业在线的3月底会跃至4000万套以上,还是其他数据公司了解到的4500万套。总之行业库存又到了一个相对的高位是不争的事实。如果按照夸张的数据4500万套以上算的话,堪称是又一次创出了历史新高。

      行业出现高库存,其实业内并不意外,一方面是国内空调企业制造能力不断提高,总产能加起来已经超过q*需求的1.2亿套,释放产能是厂家z*基本的经营需求;另一方面则是厂家较为激进的目标,格力计划5000万套,美的计划4000万套,海尔据说要翻番至2000万套以上,奥克斯至少要1600万套,TCL 2017年都宣称1000万套,2018年能会比这个少吗?

      行业主流品牌如此,新晋小品牌也是如此。谁都想在市场行情好的时候多赚一点,或许过了这个村就没有这个店了。这种节节攀升目标和相匹配的高产能,一旦落实在经营上那就肯定是会陷于高库存的泥潭。

      如果行业高库存被坐实,结果那就不用多讲,肯定会加剧市场的竞争。行业人士应该清楚的记得,2014冷年结束后,空调库存曾经一度突破4000万套,结果引发格力的清理行业的行动,s*次发起其史上主动的价格战,一直持续到来年的5月前后。

      那么2018年空调行业会还出现因库存导致的价格战吗?这要看今年市场消化库存的能力和整个大的经济环境变化。第一,如果天气酷热,势必会形成旺季的热销,可以缓解和消化库存压力;第二看看打压房地产的政策走势如何?如果没有新的打压政策,房地产保持相对稳定的局面,库存压力也会相对减缓;第三要看主流厂家会不会有一些激进销售政策。

      但不论如何,业已形成的巨大库存无疑是悬在空调行业头上的达摩克利斯剑。因此,空调厂商还是要抱着谨慎的态度,尽量尽快化解自己库存压力。否则,一旦自己的库存在旺季期间得不到消化,来年将遭遇更大的市场压力。虽然说现在说这些还比较早,但是作为市场的操盘手,就犹如是棋局中的高手,起码要提前看到好几步棋,才能有弈局胜算的可能。

      有些人还把库存的高企归结于一些小品牌的进入造成的,这种观点是本末倒置。不难发现,一方面这些小品牌自身的量极为有限,他们累计起来也没有多少量,赶不上格力、美的增加一个点;另一方面很多小品牌自身是没有生产能力,是在存量企业中贴牌生产(OEM)的,他们的增量实际上早在存量企业中体现过的。新晋小品牌能够进入,是因为有他们生存的基础和空间,这才是业内需要思考的问题,毕竟这就是典型的市场调节。不要把库存增加归结到这些新晋小品牌身上。

      对于空调行业巨大的库存,在传统旺季到来之前,其实并不可怕。怕的或许是企业的自以为是,以为自己是超人呢,不会受到市场规律的惩罚,玩那种人有多大胆、地有多大产的冒险游戏。正是这种无视市场规律,才会有巨大的风险。

      或许,未雨绸缪是当前z*好的策略!

    标签: 空调机组  

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